Super Bowl 47 Picks

AKA the HarBowl, and yes, 47, because I'm just not playing with Roman numerals any more.

The Ravens and 49ers face off this Sunday. Both teams have good stories. It's Ray Lewis's *last* time at the rodeo. Colin Kaepernick came in mid-season and set the NFC West on fire. Plus, Chef Spouse's boy David Akers. The 49ers have never lost a Super Bowl, and they've played in - and won - five, behind only the Steelers. (The Ravens have also never lost a Super Bowl, but they've only played in one so far.) Also, Harbaugh v. Harbaugh, which is like Spy v. Spy, only in color and with fewer explosives (THAT WE KNOW OF).

As usual, what I'm mostly rooting for is a good game.

Well, unless the Eagles are playing, in which case it's cool if they win 59 to 3.

Or if the Patriots are playing, in which case I hope they all come down with norovirus and have to forfeit.

Or if they Cowboys are playing...wait, what am I saying? That's not likely to happen any time soon. Heh.

I've got the 49ers. I'm not putting money on it or anything, but I think the teams are pretty evenly matched on defense, and I don't think the Ravens will be able to keep up with the 49ers scoring juggernaut.

I just hope it doesn't come down to kicking, because since his mid-season double hernia surgery, David Akers has not been brilliant.

2012 Conference Championship Picks

"So at last we meet again for the first time for the last time..."

Both of our #2 teams this week came [this] close to the Super Bowl last year. And I desperately wanted a 49ers-Ravens, Harbaugh v. Harbaugh Super Bowl last year. This year, I may get my wish.

49ers at Falcons: As the Seahawks proved last week, it is damn hard to go into Atlanta and win. Still, I can't see Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds overcoming the #3 defense the week after they put down the #4 defense, even if they did get to sleep in their own beds all week. Also, the Hawks put up some impressive numbers towards the end of the regular season, but not Colin Kaepernick numbers. Gotta go 49ers. Don't let me down, guys.

Ravens at Patriots: Chef Spouse and I were talking about the games this afternoon, and I said, "If it's another stupid Patriots Super Bowl, I'm not watching!" He responded, "Yes, you will." And I said, "No! I'll watch the commercials, but F those guys."

I really do feel that way.

Chef Spouse, in the meantime, has a man crush on Ray Lewis.

By rights, the Pats should win this game. Then again, the Pats took the Ravens out LAST year, too.

"Never pick against the Pats at home...."

Except this week. I'm going Ravens.

Side note: welcome to Philly, Chip Kelly. You weren't my top choice - I wanted Lovie Smith - but you were lots of other people's top choice including, apparently, Jeff Lurie (which is all that matters). The NFL ain't college, and Philadelphia ain't Oregon. Hope you're ready. 

2012 Divisional Weekend Picks

The AFC games are obvious this weekend. Seeing as I'm about 99.87% sure the Broncos are headed to the Super Bowl (kick-ass defense and a reinvigorated Peyton Manning, anyone?), I think *this* will be the last game of Ray Lewis's career. And while the Texans are solid on D, too, I don't think they're solid enough to overcome the Tom Brady-bot at home, particularly since Matt Schaub is shaky in playoff games, and they're playing in Foxborough. I'm going Broncos and Pats, as, I suspect, is the entire rest of the NFL game picking world.

The NFC, on the other hand, seems not nearly as clear. The Seahawks and the Redskins, on the offensive side of the ball at least, are similar teams, and I thought for sure that homefield and the Skins strong run defense would carry the day last weekend. I did not foresee that the field at FedEx would look like a hog waller, that RGIII would re-injure his knee in the first quarter, and that Shanny would then inexplicably not take him out of the game, certainly costing the Skins the game and perhaps costing RGIII the 2013 season. This has been an interesting week to be a follower of the NFL here in DC.

Anyway, returning to this weekend's games, as Chef Spouse is fond of pointing out, the Falcons are the #1 ranked team in the NFC and no one gives them any respect. Including me, apparently, because I'm picking the Seahawks.

Turning to the 49ers/Packers matchup, the big story has been the first meeting of the 2005 draft class quarterbacks. Except, of course, that Colin Kaepernick is starting for the 49ers. And, Aa-Rodg magic aside, I think he and their stout defense are going to carry the 49ers to the NFC Championship game.

Of course, if I'm right about all this, we're looking at a VERY interesting conference championship weekend, with Peyton versus Tom, part I don't even know how many, and, in the NFC, division rivals meeting for a shot at the Super Bowl.

2012 Wildcard Weekend Picks

Bengals at Texans: The Texans finished the 2012 season slumping, going 2-3 in their last 5 games, and losing the #1 seed. The Bengals finished hot, going 4-1 and playing themselves into the playoffs. The Texans won't be able to get much done through the air against the Bengals, but Arian Foster should be able to get it done on the ground. That and homefield should get the Texans past the Bengals, but I suspect their ride will end immediately after.

Viking at Packers: Adrian Peterson is a beast, no doubt, but I do not see the Vikings beating the Pack two weeks in a row, particularly not at Lambeau in January, and even if Greg Jennings would rather play inside. Packers.

Colts at Ravens: This week, Ray Lewis has announced that he's retiring after this season. He also announced that he'll be playing in the playoffs. And Joe Flacco hasn't exactly been lighting it up recently. And Andrew Luck has. But the Ravens still have Ray Rice, and the Colts have a rookie QB and a defense that is putrid against the run. And there is NO WAY the team lets a wildcard loss be Ray-Ray's last game. NO WAY. Ravens.

Seahawks at Redskins: This is a VERY INTERESTING matchup. Two dynamic rookie QBs. Two powerful running games. Two teams no one expected to see in the post-season this year. The Redskins are on fire going into the playoffs, winning their last seven games. The Seahawks are on fire going into the playoffs, winning their last five, including hanging 42 points on the #3 defense in the league. The NFL honchos chose wisely in putting this game on Sunday at 4:30. It should be excellent. The Seahawks should definitely go to the air against the Skins, who are almost dead last against the pass. But both of these teams have made their bones with their ground games. And if it's true that offense wins games and defense wins championships, I'm going to have to go with the Skins, who are better against the run than the Hawks.

Walk of Shame

Before I get to talking about the playoffs, here's how I ended up this season:

Regular season picks:

166-89-1

That's 65% (well, 64.8% to be precise).

My two best weeks were week 17, when I went 14-2 on my picks, and week 4, when I went 13-2 and correctly picked the final score of the Eagles/Giants matchup (19-17 Eagles win, in case the stench of the rest of the season has wiped it from your memory).

Most weeks I hovered in the 9-10-11 picks correct range, but a few bad weeks (week 3, 5-11, and week 6 4-10) really killed me.

On the up side, I did better than almost all the ESPN analysts. Go me!

Things are not so rosy when it comes to my pre-season playoff picks.

In the AFC, I had the Patriots, Ravens, and Texans to win their respective divisions.

I did NOT see the Broncos coming. I had the sad-sack newly head coach-less Chargers.

For wildcard, I had the Steelers (not an unreasonable pick) and the Raiders (crackalacka pick). Did not have the Bengals. Did not believe Andrew Luck and ChuckStrong could turn the Colts around this quickly. You know the Texans are not happy about that.

So I'm a straight .500 on the AFC.

In the NFC, I had the Falcons and 49ers to win their respective divisions.

I wish I knew how to quit the Lions. Sigh.

I don't think anyone had the Skins for NFC East, nor did most of us think the Eagles were going to implode quite so spectacularly.

I did have the Packers in as a playoff team, definitely at least wildcard, possible division winner.

I also had the G-men. And again, I don't think anyone saw the Seahawks coming.

In the NFC, I'm only at .333 unless we want to grade generously and give me the Packers, in which case, I also got to .500 there.

End of an Era

Eagles at Giants, Sunday, December 30, 2012 

This Sunday featured many exciting games with playoff implications. Sadly, the Eagles game was not one of them. The 42-7 rout was a microcosm of everything that's been wrong with the Eagles in 2012. And that's all I have to say about that.

Well, other than to point out to the gloating Giants fans: I realize that the last time you saw the Eagles in 2012 was when we beat you on Sunday Night Football at the end of September, so you might not know. But hanging 42 points on this team is nothing to be proud of. Pissing on Andy Reid's grave - which is what you're doing now - just shows a complete lack of class. And 9-7 and 4-12 will look pretty much the same next week, when both teams are watching the playoffs from their man caves. Only the Eagles scored a higher draft pick.

Now that I have that off my chest, I want to talk about Andy Reid a little.

I am, as my bio states, a life-long Eagles fan. My earliest football memory was when Dick Vermeil came to Philly. I was 5. I have fond memories of Sunday afternoons in front of the TV, hoagies in hand, cheering for Jaws, Wilbert Montgomery, Harold Carmichael, Mike Quick, Herm Edwards,
the Minister of Defense Reggie White, and later on, under Buddy Ryan, Randall Scramble, Cris Cater, Andre Waters, Jerome Brown, and Seth Joyner. By that point, I was in college and used to go over to the only all-male dorm on campus every weekend to watch the games, which were on in the lounges.

And then I graduated and moved out of state for grad school. This was way before the Sunday Ticket era, and I went to grad school at a college football mad university in a town with no pro team nearby. On the upside, I missed part of the Rich Kotite and pretty much all of the Ray Rhodes years. On the downside, I lost touch with my beloved Eagles.

And then I moved to the home city of a divisional rival. And Jeff Lurie hired this unknown quarterbacks coach from Green Bay named Andy Reid, who proceeded to draft this guy out of Syracuse (not exactly a football powerhouse) Donovan McNabb.

And then: Duce Staley. Brian Westbrook. Brian Dawkins. Hugh Douglas. John Runyan, David Akers. Jeremiah Trotter. Troy Vincent. Darwin Walker. Tre Thomas. Lito Sheppard. Sheldon Brown. 

And then the rest followed: five playoff appearances in a row. Four NFC championship games in a row. The Super Bowl loss to those big cheaters, the Patriots. The 2005 disaster year. The miraculous run into the playoffs under Jeff Garcia in 2006, after McNabb went down with the sports hernia. Then McNabb down again in 2007 with the ACL tear. Then the equally miraculous run back to the NFC Championship game in 2008. Playoffs again in 2009 and 2010.

Even though - and it's a big "but" - the Eagles never brought home the Lombardi trophy, Andy Reid brought this team and this city the most sustained period of success we've ever seen. He changed expectations for all of us. He gave me back my fandom.

I hope he takes a little time off. After the past two years, which have been extremely difficult both personally and professionally, I think he needs it. After that? I wish him nothing but success wherever he goes. Godspeed, Big Red. Unless you goes to Dallas, in which case all bets are off.

I will pick the playoff matchups and recap the playoff games, even though the Eagles are out, so I'll share my thoughts about the 12 teams when I pick Wildcard Weekend. I *will* say this now: at the beginning of the season, I was thinking 49ers/Texans Super Bowl. Not anymore.

2012 Week 17 Picks

This is it - the final week of the 2012 regular season.

I have plenty of complaints with the NFL (I hate Thursday night football, I wish Joe Buck and Troy Aikman would go do something - anything - else, some of the rules make no goddamn sense, and they often don't seem to be applied equally, at least not if your name is Manning or Brady), but one thing I LOVE is that the final Sunday is *just* Sunday, it's all divisional and lots of playoff scenarios are on the line, at least for the NFC. (Things are pretty settled in the AFC.)

Meanwhile, the Eagles limp to the finish (both figuratively and literally), facing the Giants in New Jersey. And the Giants don't really have much to play for, either. Don't get me wrong - they aren't mathematically eliminated, and the G-men are going to win Sunday. But it is highly unlikely that the Cowboys, Bears, and Vikings will ALL lose.

Also, I'm expecting Andy Reid to be let go first thing Monday morning. You definitely did not read that here first - EVERYONE expects Andy Reid to be let go first thing Monday morning.

Moving on:

Buccaneers at Falcons: The Falcons have nothing to play for, and I'm guessing they'll rest their starters as a result, despite recent (Colts) evidence of what a mistake that usually is. I see the Bucs winning this one.

Jets at Bills: Rex Ryan's last game at the Jets head coach? Maybe. The Jets should be able to win this one, but with the QB mess (Sanchez is benched! No, he's the starting QB!), I figure morale is at an all-time low for Gang Green, and the Bills will sneak a win. Not that it really matters.

Ravens at Bengals: I don't think either team can improve their seeding with a win - Bengals will b #6, Ravens will be #4 - and honestly, although I'm sure no one wants to play the Pats right now, facing a divisional rival two weeks in a row is even worse. With both teams likely to rest some starters and not really be that invested in the outcome, I'm going with the Bengals at home.

Bears at Lions: I know I keep picking the Lions and they keep losing. I know the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot. I'm feeling Lions, but...gotta go Bears.

Texans at Colts: The Texans have stumbled a bit of late, but the bye and possibly homefield are on the line. They'll find a way to win, even against a highly motivated Colts team at home. I think.

Panthers at Saints: Nothing to play for but pride, but the Saints don't lose at home.

Browns at Steelers: Same and same.

Jaguars at Titans: Bleh. Also, Titans. Not that ANYONE will be watching this game.

Chief at Broncos: Broncos, definitely, who also still have a shot at both the bye and homefield.

Packers at Vikings: This is going to be a great game, I think. The Pack needs the win for the bye. The Vikings need the win for a wildcard spot, and all they have to do to get it *is* win. Logically, the Pack should win, but I think the Vikes will dig deep and surprise them.

Dolphins at Patriots: Patriots.

Raiders at Chargers: The Chargers will probably win at home, but it won't change the fact that Norv is going to be be fired on Monday, too.

Rams at Seahawks: Should've listened to myself last week and NOT picked against the Seahawks at home. Not making that mistake again. Seahawks.

Cardinals at 49ers: 49ers who, if I'm right about the Pack losing, will snake that bye week right out from under Green Bay.

Redskins at Cowboys: It's for all the NFC East marbles, and the Redskins GOT this one. The Cowboys will choke. Glad Monday's a day off, because this should be a great game that I'm going to stay up to see the end of and will probably be too hyped to sleep after.